Getting Ahead OF OSTEOARTHRITIS

Why do young people get it and what can we do about it?

SBR Project ID

Date of project

Location

Type of project

This project is funded by

~600 million

Cases

of osteoarthritis worldwide — and the number is rising

10 million

People

living with osteoarthritis in the UK

~10 years

Average wait

for a diagnosis for those who develop symptoms in their 30s

2–3×

Increased risk

of osteoarthritis after certain joint injuries, including ACL tears

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AIMS

What we want to know

How much osteoarthritis is there in young, active populations — and are we currently underestimating it?

Can we recognise the early signs of osteoarthritis – in blood, in imaging, in movement — to better understand who is at risk of developing it, before symptoms become a problem?

Which treatments work best for young adults with, or at risk of, osteoarthritis?

Illustration of a person about to kick a football on top of a cross section of a knee joint.

IMPORTANCE

Why it matters

Osteoarthritis is not a single tissue failing. It is a disease that touches everything in a joint: bone, cartilage, synovium, ligaments, meniscus and more.

Prevention is more effective than cure.

Finding osteoarthritis early and identifying who is most at risk gives far more room to slow or stop its progression and help people stay active.

Illustration of a person going up stairs on top of a cross section of a knee joint.

PROJECT

So we set up a study

Questions

This cluster of work establishes how common early-onset osteoarthritis actually is — and how much is currently going unrecognised.

Step 1Complete
Observational longitudinal cohort study

ADVANCE Cohort

The Armed Services Trauma and Rehabilitation Outcome (ADVANCE) study followed 1,145 men who served in Afghanistan — 579 who sustained combat injuries, matched to 566 who did not. The study collected physical, biological, and psychological data to understand the long-term consequences of serious injury.

ADVANCE provides a rare window into a young, physically active population at known risk of joint problems. It allows researchers to ask not just who develops osteoarthritis, but when, why, and what separates those who do from those who don’t — while they are still relatively young.

1,145 participants  ·  Hip & knee focus  ·  Blood biomarkers  ·  Imaging  ·  Patient-reported outcomes
Step 2Underway
Retrospective analysis · CPRD & UK military health records

Health Records Analysis

To understand how common osteoarthritis actually is in younger people, the team analysed two large datasets in veteran and serving personnel: the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), which holds anonymised GP records for around 17.5 million patients across the UK, building on a specific project to explore veteran physical and mental health, and UK military health records.

Comparing veteran and non-veteran populations allows us to estimate how much of the osteoarthritis seen in military personnel reflects the demands of that role, and how much mirrors patterns in the wider population.

~17.5m patient records (CPRD)  ·  Veteran vs non-veteran comparison  ·  Incidence & prevalence
Output

Reliable estimates of osteoarthritis prevalence in young active populations

For the first time, robust data on how common early-onset osteoarthritis is — and how much has been going undetected — in both military and general populations.

Early detection is where the best opportunities lie. If osteoarthritis can be identified before symptoms take hold — in blood, in tissue, in how the body moves — there is far more room to intervene. These studies look for those early signals.

Step 1Complete
Systematic literature reviews · early OA prediction

Biomarker Reviews

Before running new studies, the team mapped what is already known: which biological signals — proteins, enzymes, inflammatory markers — appear in blood or other tissues before osteoarthritis becomes clinically obvious? Reviewing the international evidence base prevents duplication and identifies the gaps in knowledge. We found that blood markers, MRI markers and movement tests can all suggest ways to improve early recognition of osteoarthritis.

Serum biomarkers  ·  Early prediction
Step 2Complete
Blood test analysis · ADVANCE cohort samples

Biomarker Analysis

Using the ADVANCE study and some of the biomarkers identified in the earlier systematic reviews, studies were undertaken to see if any blood tests could be used to identify and predict osteoarthritis or better understand what is happening within the body during its development.

Step 3Underway
Advanced molecular assessment · ADVANCE cohort samples

Proteomics & Lipidomics

Proteomics analyses thousands of proteins in a biological sample simultaneously. Lipidomics does the same for fats. Together, they can reveal molecular patterns in blood that may signal early joint damage — well before a person notices pain or imaging shows any visible change.

Samples from the ADVANCE cohort are being analysed to identify signatures that distinguish people who go on to develop osteoarthritis from those who don’t. The goal is markers specific enough to be genuinely useful in a clinical setting, not just scientifically interesting.

Protein & lipid analysis  ·  Pre-symptomatic detection  ·  Due for completion 2026
Step 4Planned
Laboratory modelling & imaging · young military personnel

Growth Plate Imaging

Growth plates are areas of developing cartilage near the ends of long bones, present through adolescence and into early adulthood. There is an open question about whether high physical loads at a young age affect how joints develop — and whether this contributes to osteoarthritis risk later. This study will examine structural changes in growth plates in young military personnel, looking for early indicators that might otherwise go unnoticed for years.

Output

Biological and physical markers that reliably predict osteoarthritis onset in younger adults

Early enough to intervene before symptoms become a problem — and specific enough to be usable in a clinical setting.

Most treatment evidence has been built on studies of people in their sixties and beyond. The same interventions may not work in the same way — or at the same stage — for someone in their thirties. These studies begin to fill that gap. The current evidence points to knowledge, exercise, and lifestyle interventions as the key building blocks — and the planned work builds directly on these foundations.

Step 1Planned
Treatment effectiveness in younger adults

Interventional Studies

Trials testing specific interventions in younger adults, either with established osteoarthritis or at elevated risk. The aim is to build an evidence base that reflects this age group, not one borrowed from research conducted in people two or three decades older. Several interventions are planned, including knee braces, injections into the joint, and app-based holistic programmes.

Interventional trials  ·  Prevention & treatment  ·  Age-appropriate evidence
Step 2Planned
Implementation of global best practice

Knowledge Transfer

Research findings only change things if they reach the people who can act on them — and that process is itself studied here. Using surveys, focus groups, and implementation science, this workstream investigates how international best-practice evidence can be consistently adopted in clinical and policy settings, particularly where early-onset osteoarthritis is most common.

The study focuses on what gets in the way of change and what makes adoption of interventions more likely — generating evidence about the implementation process, not just the clinical content.

The starting point is understanding which current best-practice evidence is most relevant, and then identifying the barriers and facilitators to putting it into practice for the working-age population in the UK.

Survey & focus groups  ·  Implementation science  ·  Barriers to adoption  ·  Clinical & policy settings
Output

Clinical guidance and policy recommendations designed for adoption

Informed by trial evidence and built around what actually gets implemented — not just what works in theory.

Combined output · all three questions

Earlier diagnosis, better treatment, and prevention of osteoarthritis in younger adults

Findings are relevant beyond the military to anyone in a physically demanding occupation or recovering from joint injury.

This cluster of work establishes how common early-onset osteoarthritis actually is — and how much is currently going unrecognised.

Step 1 Complete
ADVANCE Cohort
Observational longitudinal cohort study

The Armed Services Trauma and Rehabilitation Outcome (ADVANCE) study followed 1,145 men who served in Afghanistan — 579 who sustained combat injuries, matched to 566 who did not. The study collected physical, biological, and psychological data to understand the long-term consequences of serious injury.

ADVANCE provides a rare window into a young, physically active population at known risk of joint problems. It allows researchers to ask not just who develops osteoarthritis, but when, why, and what separates those who do from those who don’t — while they are still relatively young.

1,145 participants  ·  Hip & knee focus  ·  Blood biomarkers  ·  Imaging  ·  Patient-reported outcomes
Step 2 Complete
Health Records Analysis
Retrospective analysis · CPRD & UK military health records

To understand how common osteoarthritis actually is in younger people, the team analysed two large datasets in veteran and serving personnel: the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), which holds anonymised GP records for around 17.5 million patients across the UK, building on a specific project to explore veteran physical and mental health, and UK military health records.

Comparing veteran and non-veteran populations allows us to estimate how much of the osteoarthritis seen in military personnel reflects the demands of that role, and how much mirrors patterns in the wider population.

~17.5m patient records (CPRD)  ·  Veteran vs non-veteran comparison  ·  Incidence & prevalence
Output Reliable estimates of osteoarthritis prevalence in young active populations

For the first time, robust data on how common early-onset osteoarthritis is — and how much has been going undetected — in both military and general populations.

Early detection is where the best opportunities lie. If osteoarthritis can be identified before symptoms take hold — in blood, in tissue, in how the body moves — there is far more room to intervene. These studies look for those early signals.

Step 1 Complete
Biomarker Reviews
Systematic literature reviews · early OA prediction

Before running new studies, the team mapped what is already known: which biological signals — proteins, enzymes, inflammatory markers — appear in blood or other tissues before osteoarthritis becomes clinically obvious? Reviewing the international evidence base prevents duplication and identifies the gaps in knowledge. We found that blood markers, MRI markers and movement tests can all suggest ways to improve early recognition of osteoarthritis.

Serum biomarkers  ·  Early prediction
Step 2 Complete
Biomarker Analysis
Blood test analysis · ADVANCE cohort samples

Using the ADVANCE study and some of the biomarkers identified in the earlier systematic reviews, studies were undertaken to see if any blood tests could be used to identify and predict osteoarthritis or better understand what is happening within the body during its development.

Step 3 Underway
Proteomics & Lipidomics
Advanced molecular assessment · ADVANCE cohort samples

Proteomics analyses thousands of proteins in a biological sample simultaneously. Lipidomics does the same for fats. Together, they can reveal molecular patterns in blood that may signal early joint damage — well before a person notices pain or imaging shows any visible change.

Samples from the ADVANCE cohort are being analysed to identify signatures that distinguish people who go on to develop osteoarthritis from those who don’t. The goal is markers specific enough to be genuinely useful in a clinical setting, not just scientifically interesting.

Protein & lipid analysis  ·  Pre-symptomatic detection  ·  Due for completion 2026
Step 4 Planned
Growth Plate Imaging
Laboratory modelling & imaging · young military personnel

Growth plates are areas of developing cartilage near the ends of long bones, present through adolescence and into early adulthood. There is an open question about whether high physical loads at a young age affect how joints develop — and whether this contributes to osteoarthritis risk later. This study will examine structural changes in growth plates in young military personnel, looking for early indicators that might otherwise go unnoticed for years.

Step 5 Planned
Vibration & Biomechanics
Biomechanical modelling · maritime personnel

Military personnel who work aboard vessels are exposed to prolonged whole-body vibration — a physical stress whose effects on joint health are not well understood. This study uses biomechanical modelling to examine how vibration load travels through the body and what it may do to joints over time. The findings will be relevant beyond the military: vehicle operators, construction workers, and others exposed to sustained vibration may face comparable risks.

Whole-body vibration  ·  Biomechanical modelling
Output Biological and physical markers that reliably predict osteoarthritis onset in younger adults

Early enough to intervene before symptoms become a problem — and specific enough to be usable in a clinical setting.

Most treatment evidence has been built on studies of people in their sixties and beyond. The same interventions may not work in the same way — or at the same stage — for someone in their thirties. These studies begin to fill that gap. The current evidence points to knowledge, exercise, and lifestyle interventions as the key building blocks — and the planned work builds directly on these foundations.

Step 1 Planned
Interventional Studies
Treatment effectiveness in younger adults

Trials testing specific interventions in younger adults, either with established osteoarthritis or at elevated risk. The aim is to build an evidence base that reflects this age group, not one borrowed from research conducted in people two or three decades older. Several interventions are planned, including knee braces, injections into the joint, and app-based holistic programmes.

Interventional trials  ·  Prevention & treatment  ·  Age-appropriate evidence
Step 2 Planned
Knowledge Transfer
Implementation of global best practice

Research findings only change things if they reach the people who can act on them — and that process is itself studied here. Using surveys, focus groups, and implementation science, this workstream investigates how international best-practice evidence can be consistently adopted in clinical and policy settings, particularly where early-onset osteoarthritis is most common.

The study focuses on what gets in the way of change and what makes adoption of interventions more likely — generating evidence about the implementation process, not just the clinical content. The starting point is understanding which current best-practice evidence is most relevant, and then identifying the barriers and facilitators to putting it into practice for the working-age population in the UK.

Survey & focus groups  ·  Implementation science  ·  Barriers to adoption  ·  Clinical & policy settings
Output Clinical guidance and policy recommendations designed for adoption

Informed by trial evidence and built around what actually gets implemented — not just what works in theory.

Combined output · all three questions

Earlier diagnosis, better treatment, and prevention of osteoarthritis in younger adults

Why are we studying military populations?

Illustration of a person hiking on a cross section of a knee joint.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

I thought osteoarthritis only happened in older people – surely it must be something else?

There isn’t anything that can be done, is there?

It hurts when I use my joints – should I rest them?

Illustration of a person cycling on a cross section of a knee joint.

TIMELINE

The long journey

January 2022

Project begins

ADVANCE cohort data collection and retrospective health records analysis underway. Systematic reviews of biomarker evidence started.

January 2022
January 2025

Early findings

End of initial phase. Early findings on blood markers and prevalence emerge.

January 2025
January 2026

Clinical guidance & new work streams

Clinical guidance developed. Proteomics and lipidomics analysis completed. Interventional study begins. Military-specific medical policy in development.

January 2026
January 2027

Specific risk factor studies

Investigation of vibration exposure on vessels and growth plate changes in younger personnel begins.

January 2027
January 2029

Project ends

Expected completion of this phase of the project.

January 2029

Illustration of a person bending down while gardening on a cross section of a knee joint.

RESULTS

What we have found so far

Question 1 How much is there? +

Higher rates of OA in veterans than civilians

Far higher amounts of knee and hip osteoarthritis in veterans compared to equivalent-aged non-veterans.

Earlier age of onset in veterans

Veterans develop osteoarthritis at a younger age than non-veteran controls.

Higher rates in female veterans

Rates are relatively higher in female veterans compared to male veterans.

OA underrecognised in serving personnel

Recorded rates in those still serving are far lower than ADVANCE data and equivalent US military data. This suggests the condition is likely being missed, and recognition needs to improve.

The gap between how much disease exists and how much gets identified is part of what this work is trying to close.

Question 2 Who’s at risk? +

2–4× increased risk after joint injury or amputation

Risk is highest in the first few years after injury — meaning early intervention is likely to have the greatest effect.

A shared disease pathway regardless of cause — with nuances

Blood tests look the same whether OA is post-traumatic, age-related, or occupational, suggesting a common underlying process. Within that, however, the way the disease affects individual joints varies, suggesting multiple pathways may also be at play.

Blood tests can identify who may have worse pain

No blood test can predict who will develop OA, but tests can indicate who is likely to experience worse pain — helping prioritise treatment.

Question 3 What works? +

Interventional studies are in planning. Results will appear here as they emerge.

Illustration of a person sitting on a chair tying their shoe laces while on a cross section of a knee joint.

IMPACT

What’s happened

New working group

Military Osteoarthritis Working Group

Drawn from across Defence Rehabilitation and Primary Healthcare, this multidisciplinary group formed in late 2025 with a clear brief: build the policy, care guidance and training that osteoarthritis in serving personnel has never quite had. First on the list is a Best Practice Guideline. In the meantime, members have already started running clinical training sessions for military clinicians wanting to know more.

Clinical Guidance

Osteoarthritis Best Practice Guidelines

Clinicians and young adults with, or at risk of, Osteoarthritis can feel helpless as there is no specific care recommendations. This is why it is critical for the Military Osteoarthritis Group is to bridge that gap, and develop Best Practice Guidelines. These will advise lifting the diagnostic age criteria, outline secondary preventative measures to stop or slow development, and recommend the best management strategies for a younger population. Hopefully these recommendations are helpful for other young, physically active with, or at risk of Osteoarthritis.

Policy advice

Service and National support

The work done so far has helped generate a better understanding of osteoarthritis in the British Military. As a result, individual Services representatives have reached out to help shape medical dn occupational health policy. Additionally, our work has advised the Armed Forces Compensation Scheme (AFCS) and the Independent Medical Expert Group (IMEG), providing evidence for tribunals, and informing the IMEG’s seventh report and the imminent update to the AFCS tariff tables. The next review will specifically assess osteoarthritis in light of the emerging evidence — meaning the AFCS can better support service personnel with their claims.

Research awards

A full list of the awards this research has won

  • 2026
    Professor Nicola T Fear Early Career Researcher Award Centre for Evidence for the Armed Forces Community
  • 2026
    Eric Bywaters Prize Royal Society of Medicine
  • 2025
    Defence Rehabilitation Research Prize Ministry of Defence
  • 2025
    World Congress Travel Support Award for Early Career Investigators Osteoarthritis Research Society International (OARSI)
  • 2024
    The Consultant’s Prize Royal Army Medical Corps
Public engagement

Ask the doctor, Arthritis UK

Somewhere, someone who tore a ligament years ago is quietly wondering what it means for their knee at fifty. Arthritis UK asked Oliver to answer that directly – which injuries carry the most risk, why a joint can stay quiet for years before symptoms appear, and why stopping sport altogether is rarely the right answer. Read the answer.


Illustration of a person running on top of a cross section of a knee joint.

FUTURE

Hopes for the future

A clearer picture of the disease.

Better understanding of how osteoarthritis develops in younger people – who is at risk, when it starts, and what is happening inside the joint before symptoms appear.

Care that follows people from injury onwards.

Established pathways that track younger adults from the point of injury into the years beyond – so treatment isn’t a one-off event but a continuous thread.

Evidence that prevention works.

Proof that finding osteoarthritis early, and acting on it, can slow or stop joint disease before it limits what people can do.

A connected research community.

A network of researchers working on adjacent questions – so findings don’t stay siloed, and the field moves faster as a result.

Practical support for younger adults.

Education and self-management resources grounded in what this research actually shows – written for people in their thirties and forties, not borrowed from guidance designed for someone twice their age.


Illustration of a person sitting on a chair and doing up their shoelaces, on top of a cross section of a knee joint.

TEAM

Who are we?

Dr Oliver O’Sullivan

Prof Alex Bennett

UK Ministry of Defence

Dr Pete Ladlow

UK Ministry of Defence

Prof Ana Valdes

University of Nottingham

Prof Anthony Bull

Imperial College London

Dr Fraje Watson

Imperial College London

Dr Pam Almeida-Meza

King’s College London

Dr Jos Runhaar

Erasmus Medical Centre

Dr Jackie Whittaker

University of British Columbia

Dr Angus Wann

University of Southampton

United Kingdom

University of Nottingham
Nottingham, UK

UK Ministry of Defence
London, UK

Imperial College London
London, UK

King’s College London
London, UK

University of Southampton
Southampton, UK

Netherlands

Erasmus Medical Centre
Rotterdam, Netherlands

USA

Osteoarthritis Research Society International (OARSI)
New Jersey, USA

Funders

National Institute of Health and Care Research

UK Ministry of Defence

Arthritis UK

Illustration of a person doing yoga while on a cross section of a knee joint.

CONTACT

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Results are emerging as the project develops — follow along as it unfolds.


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Join the conversation

Have your say

A few questions worth for you — share your thoughts in the discussion below.

What do you think of when you hear the word ‘osteoarthritis’?

Do you know anyone who’s been affected — and if so, what’s been hardest for them?

If you or someone close to you had osteoarthritis at 35, what would matter most to you?

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